# Conformal prediction

Source: https://onco.cc/terms/conformal-prediction/  
OnCo record `conformal-prediction` (Term). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

Conformal prediction wraps any model so that, instead of one answer, it returns a set or interval guaranteed to contain the truth a chosen fraction of the time (say 90 percent), assuming new patients resemble the calibration patients.

## Summary

Conformal prediction produces statistically valid prediction regions for any underlying point predictor, assuming only exchangeability of the data, by computing nonconformity scores on labelled calibration data (Wikipedia). It turns a subtype classifier into one that may say luminal A or luminal B when unsure, with a coverage guarantee, and it makes the exchangeability assumption explicit, which domain shift violates. Angelopoulos and Bates give the standard introduction.

## Fields

- Kind: Term
- Last checked: 2026-09-24
- Also known as: conformal prediction; conformal inference; conformal prediction sets; prediction sets; prediction intervals with coverage; nonconformity score
- Tags: cansim-terms

## Notes

- Listed in the CanSim terms map 1.0.0 (docs/onco/terms.json, generated 2026-09-24), CC BY 4.0, attribution: CanSim project, an open, public-data-first cancer foundation-model programme; CanSim page path /terms/conformal-prediction.

## Sources

- Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conformal_prediction
- Angelopoulos and Bates, A gentle introduction to conformal prediction (arXiv 2021): https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07511
- Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conformal_prediction

## Connected records

- terms: [Calibration: reliability diagrams and the Brier score](https://onco.cc/terms/calibration/), [Cancer AI vocabulary (CanSim terms map)](https://onco.cc/terms/cancer-ai-vocabulary/), [Out-of-distribution detection (Mahalanobis guard)](https://onco.cc/terms/ood-detection/), [Uncertainty quantification and confidence gates](https://onco.cc/terms/uncertainty-quantification/)

---
JSON: https://onco.cc/api/v1/entities/conformal-prediction.json