# An open global model of cancer workforce supply and demand by country

Source: https://onco.cc/ideas/idea-acc-open-oncology-workforce-model/  
OnCo record `idea-acc-open-oncology-workforce-model` (Idea). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

No one knows exactly how many oncologists, nurses, physicists and pathologists each country has or needs. A public, regularly updated model would let governments plan training and spot shortfalls years ahead.

## Summary

Estimates of oncology workforce density are scattered across surveys and often a decade old. An open model combining registry burden (GLOBOCAN), treatment utilisation rates, professional-body registers, and training-pipeline data would project supply and demand by profession and country to 2040 and would show the effect of training decisions. The model would be maintained as a public good with annual updates.

## Fields

- Kind: Idea
- Last checked: 2026-09-08
- Hypothesis: Countries using the model to set training quotas will reduce the projected 2035 shortfall in at least two professions by more than 20% relative to business-as-usual, as measured by subsequent registration data.
- Rationale: Health workforce planning models exist for nurses and physicians in general; oncology has the burden and utilisation data needed but has never assembled them.
- Proposed test: Build and publish the model; validate historical projections against current registers in ten countries; track policy uptake and quota changes.
- Maturity: speculative
- Actor: data

## Sources

- Bottleneck evidence (Not enough oncologists, nurses, pathologists, physicists): Yang et al., Projected supply of and demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists through 2025 (JOP 2014): https://doi.org/10.1200/JOP.2013.001319

## Connected records

- collections: [GLOBOCAN / Global Cancer Observatory](https://onco.cc/collections/globocan/)
- institutions: [International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC / WHO)](https://onco.cc/institutions/iarc/)
- bottlenecks: [Data silos](https://onco.cc/bottlenecks/b-data-silos/), [Not enough oncologists, nurses, pathologists, physicists](https://onco.cc/bottlenecks/b-workforce/)
- key papers: [Projected supply of and demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists through 2025: an aging, better-insured population will result in shortage](https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-yang-j-oncol-pract/)

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