# Ethnicity-stratified outcome reporting for triple-negative breast cancer in NHS cancer statistics

Source: https://onco.cc/ideas/idea-tnbc-uk-ethnicity-stratified-outcome-reporting/  
OnCo record `idea-tnbc-uk-ethnicity-stratified-outcome-reporting` (Idea). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

The one UK study to look found young Black women had more triple-negative breast cancer and worse survival than White women despite equal chemotherapy, but it ended in 2008 and covered women under 41. Routine cancer statistics could report triple-negative incidence, stage and survival by ethnicity every year; at present they do not.

## Summary

The UK and NHS page for triple-negative breast cancer records that no UK registry publishes triple-negative incidence or survival by ethnicity; this idea holds the evidence that exists. The POSH cohort (2,915 women aged 40 or under, recruited 2000 to 2008) found triple-negative disease in 26.1 percent of Black against 18.6 percent of White women, larger tumours at presentation, and five-year overall survival of 71.1 versus 82.4 percent with chemotherapy use equal at about 89 percent; Black ethnicity was an independent risk factor for distant relapse. United States registries have reported triple-negative incidence by ethnicity since 2010. English cancer registration records receptor status and ethnicity but does not publish triple-negative outcomes by ethnicity, so whether the POSH gap persists in the immunotherapy era, whether it extends to older women, and whether it reflects stage at diagnosis, germline variants, subtype or treatment delivery is unknown.

## Fields

- Kind: Idea
- Last checked: 2026-09-24
- Tags: tnbc-evidence
- Hypothesis: Annual publication of triple-negative breast cancer incidence, stage at diagnosis, treatment received and three-year survival by ethnic group from national cancer registration will show a persisting survival gap for Black women in England of at least 5 percentage points and will identify stage at diagnosis and time to treatment as modifiable contributors.
- Rationale: A disparity that is measured can be acted on; the data fields exist and the analysis is routine for other cancers and other countries.
- Proposed test: A one-off linked analysis of the 2015 to 2022 diagnostic cohort with receptor status, ethnicity, stage, treatment and survival, followed by inclusion of a triple-negative-by-ethnicity table in the annual cancer survival statistics, with a companion germline and subtype sub-study in a consented cohort.
- Maturity: speculative
- Actor: data

## Notes

- The UK and NHS page for triple-negative breast cancer records the data gaps this reporting would close: the NDRS registration statistics answered 403 on 24 September 2026, the Scottish open data carry no receptor field, and the Welsh and Northern Irish tables are by site and stage only.

## Sources

- Copson et al.: POSH, ethnicity and outcome (Br J Cancer 2014): https://europepmc.org/article/MED/24149174

## Connected records

- ideas: [Close the gap between who gets triple-negative breast cancer and who is in its trials](https://onco.cc/ideas/idea-tnbc-disparities-in-access-and-outcomes/)
- cancers: [Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC)](https://onco.cc/cancers/tnbc/)
- institutions: [Cancer Research UK](https://onco.cc/institutions/cruk/)
- bottlenecks: [Data silos](https://onco.cc/bottlenecks/b-data-silos/), [Fragmented care and guideline gaps](https://onco.cc/bottlenecks/b-care-fragmentation/), [Trials do not represent the people who get cancer](https://onco.cc/bottlenecks/b-trial-diversity/)
- key papers: [Ethnicity and outcome of young breast cancer patients in the United Kingdom: the POSH study](https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-copson-posh-ethnicity-young-breast-cancer-uk-bjc-2014/), [Update on triple-negative breast cancer disparities for the United States: A population-based study from the United States Cancer Statistics database, 2010 through 2014](https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-scott-tnbc-disparities-uscs-cancer-2019/), [US incidence of breast cancer subtypes defined by joint hormone receptor and HER2 status](https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-howlader-us-incidence-breast-subtypes-jnci-2014/)
- roadmaps: [Triple-negative breast cancer roadmap: from a remainder defined by three negative tests to immunotherapy, antibody-drug conjugates and the residual disease problem](https://onco.cc/roadmaps/tnbc-roadmap/)

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