# Ferlay 2015: sources, methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012

Source: https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-ferlay-globocan-2012-methods-ijc-2015/  
OnCo record `paper-ferlay-globocan-2012-methods-ijc-2015` (Key paper). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

The methods paper behind the 2012 world cancer estimates, explaining how IARC builds country figures from registries of very different quality, and reporting about 14.1 million new cases and 32.6 million people living within five years of a diagnosis.

## Summary

Ferlay and colleagues at IARC described how GLOBOCAN 2012 estimated incidence, mortality and five-year prevalence for 27 cancers in 184 countries. They set out the hierarchy of methods used according to the data available, from national registries with high coverage to modelling from neighbouring countries, and summarised the results: about 14.1 million new cases, 8.2 million deaths and 32.6 million people alive within five years of diagnosis in 2012, with lung, breast and colorectal cancers the most common. The paper is the one to cite for how GLOBOCAN numbers are made and how uncertain they are by country.

## Fields

- Kind: Key paper
- Last checked: 2026-09-08
- Journal: International Journal of Cancer
- Year: 2015
- DOI: 10.1002/ijc.29210
- Authors: Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Dikshit R, et al.
- Findings: About 14.1 million new cases, 8.2 million deaths and 32.6 million five-year prevalent cases worldwide in 2012.; Country estimates follow a hierarchy of methods depending on registry coverage and mortality data quality.; Lung, breast and colorectal cancers were the most common; lung, liver and stomach cancers the leading causes of death.
- What it means: Anyone using GLOBOCAN numbers should know how they are produced; this paper explains the method hierarchy and why figures for countries without good registries carry wide uncertainty.
- Caveats: Methods differ by country, so cross-country comparisons mix data of very different quality.; Superseded by the 2018, 2020 and 2022 methods papers.

## Sources

- Full text (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.29210
- IARC Global Cancer Observatory: https://gco.iarc.who.int/today

## Connected records

- key papers: [Torre 2015: Global cancer statistics, 2012](https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-torre-global-cancer-statistics-2012-cacancer-2015/)
- institutions: [International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC / WHO)](https://onco.cc/institutions/iarc/)
- terms: [Incidence versus prevalence](https://onco.cc/terms/incidence-vs-prevalence/), [Mortality](https://onco.cc/terms/mortality/)
- technologies: [Cancer registries and population surveillance](https://onco.cc/technologies/cancer-registries-surveillance/)

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