# People living after cancer in Italy and the share who are cured, 2018 to 2030

Source: https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-guzzinati-cure-prevalence-italy-esmo-open-2024/  
OnCo record `paper-guzzinati-cure-prevalence-italy-esmo-open-2024` (Key paper). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

Italian cancer registries counted 3.35 million people alive after a cancer diagnosis in 2018, projected to reach 4 million by 2030, and estimated that 86 per cent of them will not die of their cancer.

## Summary

Data from Italian cancer registries covering 47 per cent of the population, with registration running from 9 to 40 years (median 22), were used to estimate limited-duration and complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, the share of people who will not die of their cancer, by cancer type, sex, age and time since diagnosis.

3,347,809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, 5.6 per cent of residents, projected to rise by 1.5 per cent a year to 4,012,376 in 2030 (6.9 per cent). Breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million) and colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52 per cent of them. Cure prevalence was 86 per cent for everyone alive in 2018, 93 per cent for those five years past diagnosis and 96 per cent after ten. Among five-year survivors the excess risk of death was under 5 per cent for most cancers but 8.3 per cent for breast, 11.1 for lung, 13.2 for kidney and 15.5 for bladder cancer.

## Fields

- Kind: Key paper
- Last checked: 2026-11-03
- Journal: ESMO Open
- Year: 2024
- DOI: 10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635
- Authors: Guzzinati S, Toffolutti F, Francisci S, et al.
- Findings: 3,347,809 people alive after a cancer diagnosis in Italy in 2018 (5.6 per cent of residents), projected to 4,012,376 (6.9 per cent) in 2030.; Cure prevalence 86 per cent overall, 93 per cent after 5 years and 96 per cent after 10 years since diagnosis.; Excess risk of death among five-year survivors below 5 per cent for most cancers, but 8.3 per cent for breast, 11.1 for lung, 13.2 for kidney and 15.5 for bladder.
- What it means: These are the population figures behind Italy's 2023 right-to-be-forgotten law, which lets people treated for cancer stop declaring it to insurers and lenders after a set time. They also tell a survivor that, for most cancers, five years without recurrence brings the risk of dying of it close to nothing.
- Caveats: Registries cover under half the population; national figures are modelled from them.; Cure prevalence is a statistical estimate for groups, not a prediction for an individual.

## Sources

- ESMO Open 2024: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635
- PubMed: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39043021/

## Connected records

- key papers: [Financial difficulties and outcomes of cancer patients in Italian academic trials](https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-perrone-financial-difficulties-italy-annonc-2016/)
- cancers: [Breast cancer (all types)](https://onco.cc/cancers/breast-cancer/), [Colorectal cancer](https://onco.cc/cancers/colorectal/), [Prostate cancer](https://onco.cc/cancers/prostate/)
- institutions: [Centro di Riferimento Oncologico di Aviano (CRO)](https://onco.cc/institutions/cro-aviano/), [Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori](https://onco.cc/institutions/int-milan/)
- journals: [ESMO Open](https://onco.cc/journals/esmo-open/)

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