# Preneoplastic lesions and gallbladder cancer: an estimate of the period required for progression

Source: https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-roa-dysplasia-to-carcinoma-interval-gastroenterology-1996/  
OnCo record `paper-roa-dysplasia-to-carcinoma-interval-gastroenterology-1996` (Key paper). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

Comparing the ages of Chilean patients with dysplasia, early cancer, advanced cancer and spread cancer of the gallbladder, the authors estimated that it takes around 15 years to go from dysplasia to advanced disease.

## Summary

84 cases of dysplasia, 60 early carcinomas, 181 advanced carcinomas and 121 metastatic gallbladder cancers were analysed using age as the main parameter, with analysis of variance and multiple regression. Women were younger than men across all lesions, and mean age differed by lesion type: 46.3 years (SD 16) for dysplasia, 57.5 (16.7) for early carcinoma, 59 (13.7) for advanced carcinoma and 61.1 (12.1) for metastatic disease.

Multiple regression showed a significant difference in mean age between dysplastic and carcinoma groups (r = 0.386; P < 0.001). The period required to progress from dysplasia to advanced carcinoma was estimated at around 15 years, with a continuum in the progression of the lesions.

## Fields

- Kind: Key paper
- Last checked: 2026-09-24
- Journal: Gastroenterology
- Year: 1996
- DOI: 10.1053/gast.1996.v111.pm8698204
- Authors: Roa I, Araya JC, Villaseca M, et al.
- Findings: Mean ages: dysplasia 46.3, early carcinoma 57.5, advanced carcinoma 59, metastatic 61.1 years.; Estimated 15 years from dysplasia to advanced carcinoma.; Women younger than men at every stage.
- What it means: The origin of the 10 to 15 year window quoted for gallbladder carcinogenesis, which is the argument that cholecystectomy for stones or dysplasia in high-incidence regions prevents cancer years later.
- Caveats: Cross-sectional age comparison, not longitudinal follow-up.; Chilean population with high incidence and early onset.

## Sources

- Roa et al., Gastroenterology 1996: time from dysplasia to gallbladder carcinoma: https://doi.org/10.1053/gast.1996.v111.pm8698204
- PubMed: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8698204/

## Connected records

- cancers: [Gallbladder cancer](https://onco.cc/cancers/gallbladder/)
- terms: [Dysplasia (pre-cancerous change)](https://onco.cc/terms/dysplasia/), [Metaplasia, dysplasia, carcinoma in situ: the flat route to gallbladder cancer](https://onco.cc/terms/metaplasia-dysplasia-carcinoma-sequence/)

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