# Changes in incidence of HPV-related cancers in South Africa (2011-21): a cross-sectional analysis of the South African National Cancer Registry

Source: https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-shing-hpv-related-cancers-south-africa-lancet-glob-health-2025/  
OnCo record `paper-shing-hpv-related-cancers-south-africa-lancet-glob-health-2025` (Key paper). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

From 2011 to 2021, cervical cancer in South Africa's national registry ran at about 30 cases per 100,000 women a year and began to fall from 2016, while cancers of the vulva, vagina, penis and anus caused by the same virus rose.

## Summary

The authors used National Cancer Registry data and Statistics South Africa population estimates to calculate age-standardised incidence of cervical carcinoma and of vulvar, vaginal, penile, oropharyngeal and anal squamous cell carcinoma in people aged 15 and older, by sex, year, age and population group, with trends estimated by joinpoint regression.

## Fields

- Kind: Key paper
- Last checked: 2026-11-04
- Journal: Lancet Global Health
- Year: 2025
- DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00065-8
- Authors: Shing JZ, Mashele S, Tsegaye AT, Da Costa Dias B, Engels EA, Chikandiwa A, Shiels MS, Mwansa-Kambafwile J, Stephens ES, Metekoua C, Liu D, Carvajal LJ, Kreimer AR, Muchengeti M
- Findings: Cervical carcinoma incidence was 30.4 per 100,000 person-years over 2011 to 2021, highest at ages 55 to 64 (58.5), stable to 2016 and then declining (average annual change -2.7%).; Vulvar squamous cell carcinoma rose 8.0% a year, vaginal 3.2%, female anal 8.5%, penile 6.9% and male anal 9.3%; oropharyngeal cancer was stable.; Cervical, vulvar and vaginal cancer incidence was highest among Black women and penile cancer among Black men.
- What it means: Cancers driven by HPV other than cervical cancer are rising quickly in South Africa, most among Black South Africans, which the authors link to high HPV and HIV co-infection; HIV prevention and HPV vaccination are the levers.
- Caveats: The registry counts cancers confirmed by a laboratory, so cancers diagnosed only clinically are missed.; Changes in diagnosis and reporting can affect trends.

## Sources

- Lancet Glob Health 2025: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00065-8
- PubMed: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40412399/

## Connected records

- cancers: [Anal cancer (squamous cell carcinoma)](https://onco.cc/cancers/anal/), [Cervical cancer](https://onco.cc/cancers/cervical/), [Penile cancer](https://onco.cc/cancers/penile/), [Vulvar cancer](https://onco.cc/cancers/vulvar/)
- institutions: [National Cancer Registry, South Africa](https://onco.cc/institutions/national-cancer-registry-south-africa/)
- people: [Mazvita Muchengeti](https://onco.cc/people/mazvita-muchengeti/)

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