# EORTC risk tables for recurrence and progression in Ta and T1 bladder cancer

Source: https://onco.cc/key-papers/paper-sylvester-eortc-risk-tables-eur-urol-2006/  
OnCo record `paper-sylvester-eortc-risk-tables-eur-urol-2006` (Key paper). Data CC BY-NC 4.0, attribute "Data from OnCo (onco.cc)"; commercial use needs a licence.

## TL;DR

Pooling seven trials, this analysis produced the scoring tables that clinicians still use to estimate how likely a non-muscle-invasive bladder tumour is to come back or to progress into the muscle.

## Summary

Analysis of 2,596 patients with Ta or T1 bladder cancer from seven EORTC trials, mostly treated with transurethral resection and intravesical chemotherapy, to identify factors predicting recurrence and progression.

Number of tumours, size, prior recurrence rate, T category, carcinoma in situ and grade were combined into scores giving one- and five-year probabilities of recurrence and progression. The tables underpin the low, intermediate and high-risk groups used in guidelines.

## Fields

- Kind: Key paper
- Last checked: 2026-09-17
- Journal: European Urology
- Year: 2006
- DOI: 10.1016/j.eururo.2005.12.031
- Authors: Sylvester RJ, van der Meijden AP, Oosterlinck W, et al.
- Findings: Five-year progression risk ranged from under 1 percent in the lowest score group to 45 percent in the highest.; Five-year recurrence risk ranged from 31 percent to 78 percent.
- What it means: The risk groups that decide whether a patient gets a single chemotherapy instillation, BCG, or early cystectomy trace back to this work. Later models (CUETO, the 2021 EAU risk groups) refine the estimates for BCG-treated patients.
- Caveats: Few patients received BCG maintenance or re-resection, so the tables overestimate risk under modern care.; Grading used the 1973 WHO system.

## Sources

- Eur Urol 2006: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eururo.2005.12.031
- PubMed: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16442208/

## Connected records

- cancers: [Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer](https://onco.cc/cancers/non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer/)
- journals: [European Urology](https://onco.cc/journals/european-urology/)

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