{"entity":{"id":"conformal-prediction","kind":"term","name":"Conformal prediction","aka":["conformal prediction","conformal inference","conformal prediction sets","prediction sets","prediction intervals with coverage","nonconformity score"],"tldr":"Conformal prediction wraps any model so that, instead of one answer, it returns a set or interval guaranteed to contain the truth a chosen fraction of the time (say 90 percent), assuming new patients resemble the calibration patients.","summary":"Conformal prediction produces statistically valid prediction regions for any underlying point predictor, assuming only exchangeability of the data, by computing nonconformity scores on labelled calibration data (Wikipedia). It turns a subtype classifier into one that may say luminal A or luminal B when unsure, with a coverage guarantee, and it makes the exchangeability assumption explicit, which domain shift violates. Angelopoulos and Bates give the standard introduction.","asOf":"2026-09-24","wikipedia":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conformal_prediction","links":[{"label":"Angelopoulos and Bates, A gentle introduction to conformal prediction (arXiv 2021)","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07511"},{"label":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conformal_prediction"}],"tags":["cansim-terms"],"related":["cancer-ai-vocabulary"],"cancers":[],"sections":[],"technologies":[],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":[],"pathways":[],"terms":["uncertainty-quantification","calibration","ood-detection"],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":[],"keyPapers":[],"journals":[],"dependsOn":[],"notes":["Listed in the CanSim terms map 1.0.0 (docs/onco/terms.json, generated 2026-09-24), CC BY 4.0, attribution: CanSim project, an open, public-data-first cancer foundation-model programme; CanSim page path /terms/conformal-prediction."],"provenance":{"editedBy":"OnCo CanSim terms wave (Wikipedia summaries, standards and project pages, GDC and FDA pages, Europe PMC)","editedOn":"2026-09-24","note":"CanSim terms map 1.0.0 (docs/onco/terms.json, generated 2026-09-24), CC BY 4.0, attribution: CanSim project, an open, public-data-first cancer foundation-model programme"},"category":"Methods and models"},"route":"/terms/conformal-prediction/","neighbours":{"term":[{"id":"calibration","kind":"term","name":"Calibration: reliability diagrams and the Brier score","route":"/terms/calibration/"},{"id":"cancer-ai-vocabulary","kind":"term","name":"Cancer AI vocabulary (CanSim terms map)","route":"/terms/cancer-ai-vocabulary/"},{"id":"ood-detection","kind":"term","name":"Out-of-distribution detection (Mahalanobis guard)","route":"/terms/ood-detection/"},{"id":"uncertainty-quantification","kind":"term","name":"Uncertainty quantification and confidence gates","route":"/terms/uncertainty-quantification/"}]}}