{"entity":{"id":"paper-chari-pancreatic-cancer-following-diabetes-gastroenterology-2005","kind":"paper","name":"Probability of pancreatic cancer following diabetes: a population-based study","aka":[],"tldr":"The 2005 Minnesota study that found about 1 in 100 people who develop diabetes after 50 is diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within three years, eight times the expected rate, which made new diabetes a possible early warning.","summary":"Chari and colleagues assembled a population-based cohort of 2,122 Rochester, Minnesota residents aged 50 or over who first met standardised criteria for diabetes between 1950 and 1994 and identified those diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within three years. Eighteen (0.85 percent) were, 10 of them within six months of meeting diabetes criteria, and three were resected; the observed-to-expected ratio against the Iowa SEER registry was 7.94 (95 percent confidence interval 4.70 to 12.55). Diabetic subjects with pancreatic cancer were more likely to have met diabetes criteria after age 69 (odds ratio 4.52) and did not differ in body mass index from those without. The authors concluded that about 1 percent of diabetes subjects aged 50 or over will be diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within three years and that the marker needed further evaluation.","asOf":"2026-09-24","links":[{"label":"Gastroenterology 2005","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gastro.2005.05.007"},{"label":"PubMed","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16083707/"}],"tags":["pancreatic-evidence"],"related":["paper-sharma-endpac-model-new-onset-diabetes-gastroenterology-2018","idea-mced-new-onset-diabetes"],"cancers":["pancreatic"],"sections":[],"technologies":[],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":["mayo-clinic"],"pathways":[],"terms":["ppv"],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":["b-early-detection"],"keyPapers":[],"journals":["gastroenterology"],"dependsOn":[],"notes":[],"journal":"Gastroenterology","year":2005,"doi":"10.1016/j.gastro.2005.05.007","pmid":"16083707","authors":"Chari ST, Leibson CL, Rabe KG, et al.","paperType":"observational","findings":["2,122 new diabetics aged 50 or over; 18 (0.85 percent) diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within three years.","Observed-to-expected ratio 7.94; 10 of 18 diagnosed within six months of diabetes onset.","Onset after 69 raised the odds (odds ratio 4.52); body mass index did not differ."],"whatItMeans":"The observation behind every new-onset diabetes strategy: a 1 percent prevalence is a hundred times the general population's and high enough for a blood test or scan to have a useful positive predictive value.","caveats":["Single US county, diabetes criteria from 1950 to 1994, small case count.","Three-year prevalence, not a screening result; whether finding these cancers earlier saves lives is untested."],"participants":2122},"route":"/key-papers/paper-chari-pancreatic-cancer-following-diabetes-gastroenterology-2005/","neighbours":{"paper":[{"id":"paper-sharma-endpac-model-new-onset-diabetes-gastroenterology-2018","kind":"paper","name":"Model to Determine Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in Patients With New-Onset Diabetes","route":"/key-papers/paper-sharma-endpac-model-new-onset-diabetes-gastroenterology-2018/"}],"idea":[{"id":"idea-mced-new-onset-diabetes","kind":"idea","name":"Blood-based pancreatic cancer detection in new-onset diabetes","route":"/ideas/idea-mced-new-onset-diabetes/"},{"id":"idea-pdac-new-onset-diabetes-risk-score-pathway","kind":"idea","name":"Run the ENDPAC score on every new diabetes diagnosis after 50 and scan the high scorers","route":"/ideas/idea-pdac-new-onset-diabetes-risk-score-pathway/"}],"cancer":[{"id":"pancreatic","kind":"cancer","name":"Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma","route":"/cancers/pancreatic/"}],"institution":[{"id":"mayo-clinic","kind":"institution","name":"Mayo Clinic","route":"/institutions/mayo-clinic/"}],"term":[{"id":"ppv","kind":"term","name":"Positive predictive value (PPV)","route":"/terms/ppv/"}],"bottleneck":[{"id":"b-early-detection","kind":"bottleneck","name":"The hardest cancers are found late","route":"/bottlenecks/b-early-detection/"}],"journal":[{"id":"gastroenterology","kind":"journal","name":"Gastroenterology","route":"/journals/gastroenterology/"}],"roadmap":[{"id":"pancreatic-roadmap","kind":"roadmap","name":"Pancreatic cancer roadmap: from Whipple's operation to gemcitabine, FOLFIRINOX, adjuvant chemotherapy, PARP inhibition, KRAS inhibition, vaccines and the surveillance question","route":"/roadmaps/pancreatic-roadmap/"}]}}