{"entity":{"id":"prognosis-risk-percentile","kind":"term","name":"Risk score and risk percentile","aka":["risk percentile","risk score","prognostic score","predicted risk","risk group","risk stratification"],"tldr":"A risk score is a model's estimate of how likely a bad outcome is; a risk percentile says where that estimate sits compared with a reference group of patients.","summary":"Prognosis is a medical prediction of the likely course of a disease (Wikipedia). Prediction models turn many variables into a single score, often reported as a percentile against a reference cohort (a patient in the 90th percentile is predicted to do worse than nine in ten comparable patients) or cut into low, intermediate and high risk groups. A percentile ranks; it says nothing about absolute risk unless the model is calibrated.","asOf":"2026-09-24","wikipedia":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prognosis","links":[{"label":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prognosis"}],"tags":["cansim-terms"],"related":["cancer-ai-vocabulary"],"cancers":[],"sections":[],"technologies":[],"targets":[],"drugs":[],"companies":[],"institutions":[],"pathways":[],"terms":["prognosis","calibration","concordance-index"],"trials":[],"people":[],"bottlenecks":[],"keyPapers":[],"journals":[],"dependsOn":[],"notes":["Listed in the CanSim terms map 1.0.0 (docs/onco/terms.json, generated 2026-09-24), CC BY 4.0, attribution: CanSim project, an open, public-data-first cancer foundation-model programme; CanSim page path /terms/prognosis-risk-percentile."],"provenance":{"editedBy":"OnCo CanSim terms wave (Wikipedia summaries, standards and project pages, GDC and FDA pages, Europe PMC)","editedOn":"2026-09-24","note":"CanSim terms map 1.0.0 (docs/onco/terms.json, generated 2026-09-24), CC BY 4.0, attribution: CanSim project, an open, public-data-first cancer foundation-model programme"},"category":"Endpoints"},"route":"/terms/prognosis-risk-percentile/","neighbours":{"term":[{"id":"concordance-index","kind":"term","name":"C-index (concordance index), Harrell's and Uno's","route":"/terms/concordance-index/"},{"id":"calibration","kind":"term","name":"Calibration: reliability diagrams and the Brier score","route":"/terms/calibration/"},{"id":"cancer-ai-vocabulary","kind":"term","name":"Cancer AI vocabulary (CanSim terms map)","route":"/terms/cancer-ai-vocabulary/"},{"id":"prognosis","kind":"term","name":"Prognosis","route":"/terms/prognosis/"}]}}