OnCo
ideasIdea

Every patient on an accelerated-approval drug enrolled in a registry until confirmation

Drugs approved early on promising but unproven results would have every treated patient followed in a registry, so we know within two years whether the promise held.

Accelerated approvals rest on surrogate endpoints; confirmatory trials take a median of several years and some are never completed. The proposal makes registry enrolment with automatic outcome capture (via mCODE and registry linkage) a condition of prescribing under accelerated approval, giving regulators an interim real-world signal on survival and toxicity while the confirmatory trial runs. The FDA's 2023 authority to require confirmatory trials be underway at approval is the policy hook; the registry is the complementary data hook.

Hypothesis
Mandatory registries will detect lack of overall survival benefit for accelerated-approval indications that later fail confirmation at least 18 months earlier than the confirmatory trial does.
Rationale
Several accelerated-approval oncology indications were withdrawn only after years of use; real-world survival on those drugs was knowable much earlier had the data been collected.
What would test it
Retrospectively emulate the registry for five withdrawn indications using existing real-world data and estimate when a survival signal would have been detectable; prospectively apply to the next ten accelerated approvals.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
regulator
Cost to try
Medium ($1M to $50M)
Years to first evidence
3
Bottlenecks it attacks

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