OnCo
ideasIdea

Public-option manufacturing for essential generic cancer drugs in shortage

Cheap, essential chemotherapy drugs such as cisplatin keep running short because there is little profit in making them. A publicly-backed non-profit manufacturer would guarantee supply at a fair price.

Extend the Civica Rx and California CalRx model to a portfolio of essential oncology generics that repeatedly fall into shortage (cisplatin, carboplatin, methotrexate, fluorouracil, vincristine, etoposide, BCG): a non-profit manufacturer or contracted network with public capital, long-term purchase agreements from hospital systems and national payers, redundant production sites, and transparent cost-plus pricing. Where the public option also supplies low- and middle-income countries through pooled procurement, it addresses global access at the same time. The problem is not scientific; it is a market that rewards exit from low-margin sterile injectables.

Hypothesis
A public-option supplier covering the ten most shortage-prone oncology generics eliminates treatment delays attributable to those shortages in participating health systems within three years and holds prices within 20% of the pre-shortage median.
Rationale
Civica has supplied dozens of shortage-prone hospital generics since 2018 with stable prices; the 2023 cisplatin and carboplatin shortage in the US forced rationing of curative treatment, an outcome that would be unthinkable for a high-margin product. Public options for essential goods are a standard response to thin-market failure.
What would test it
Fund one non-profit line for cisplatin and carboplatin with purchase commitments from a consortium of cancer centres, and track fill rates, delays and prices against the national market over two years.
Maturity
early clinical
Who has to act
policy
Cost to try
Large (over $50M)
Years to first evidence
3
Bottlenecks it attacks

Connected

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