OnCo
ideasIdea

Autonomous closed-loop adaptive therapy driven by blood tests and evolutionary models

Rather than giving the same dose until the cancer grows, measure tumour DNA in blood every few weeks and let a validated algorithm raise, lower, pause or switch drugs to keep the cancer suppressed for longer.

Adaptive therapy trials in prostate cancer (PSA-guided abiraterone cycling at Moffitt) suggest that modulating dose to maintain competition between sensitive and resistant cells can extend control. Circulating tumour DNA now allows frequent, clone-resolved monitoring across cancers. The proposal is a closed-loop system: serial ctDNA and imaging feed an evolutionary model that recommends dose and drug changes under pre-specified rules, with clinician oversight, tested first in oncogene-driven lung cancer and hormone-sensitive prostate cancer.

Hypothesis
Algorithm-guided adaptive dosing extends time to treatment failure by at least 30% over continuous standard dosing with lower cumulative drug exposure and toxicity.
Rationale
Resistance is an evolutionary process; continuous maximum dosing selects for it. Frequent measurement plus rule-based modulation is how control engineering handles adaptive adversaries.
What would test it
Randomised phase 2 of closed-loop adaptive versus standard continuous therapy in EGFR-mutant lung cancer on osimertinib, with time to failure primary and cumulative dose and toxicity secondary.
Maturity
early clinical
Who has to act
research
Cost to try
Medium ($1M to $50M)
Years to first evidence
6
Bottlenecks it attacks

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