OnCo
ideasIdea

Subscription pricing for checkpoint inhibitors: fixed national fee, unlimited use

Instead of paying per dose, a country would pay a fixed annual fee and treat every eligible patient with immunotherapy. This has worked for hepatitis C drugs and antibiotics.

Louisiana and Australia bought hepatitis C antivirals under subscription ('Netflix') models that delinked revenue from volume, and NHS England pays fixed annual subscriptions for two antibiotics. Checkpoint inhibitors are used across dozens of indications, are volume-limited in most middle-income countries by per-dose price, and have low marginal manufacturing cost. The proposal is a national subscription contract: a fixed annual payment for unlimited pembrolizumab or nivolumab (or a biosimilar once available) in all approved indications, with the manufacturer's incentive shifted to supporting diagnosis and appropriate use.

Hypothesis
In a subscribing middle-income country the number of patients treated with checkpoint inhibitors rises at least threefold at total spend no higher than the prior year, and the manufacturer's revenue is maintained or increased.
Rationale
Where the marginal cost of production is low and the untreated population is large, both parties gain from delinking price from volume; subscription also removes the rationing by indication that per-dose pricing forces.
What would test it
Negotiate a three-year subscription in one or two middle-income countries and compare treated patients, spend and outcomes with matched countries on per-dose pricing.
Maturity
early clinical
Who has to act
payer
Cost to try
Large (over $50M)
Years to first evidence
3
Bottlenecks it attacks
  • Prices and value · New cancer drugs routinely cost over $150,000 a year, often for months of benefit. Systems cannot afford them and patients go bankrupt.
  • Most of the world has almost no cancer care · Seven in ten cancer deaths happen in low- and middle-income countries, where radiotherapy, pathology, surgery and drugs are scarce.

Connected

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