OnCo
ideasIdea

A multi-cancer platform trial of adaptive (dose-holiday) therapy

Instead of hitting a tumour with the maximum dose until it stops working, adjust the dose to keep the tumour small and let drug-sensitive cells suppress resistant ones. Test this properly across several cancers.

Adaptive therapy, in which dosing is modulated on a tumour burden marker to maintain a stable population of sensitive cells, extended time to progression in a pilot of abiraterone in prostate cancer. It has not been tested at scale or outside prostate. A platform trial would run adaptive versus continuous dosing arms in prostate (PSA), ovarian (CA-125) and melanoma (ctDNA) simultaneously with a shared evolutionary modelling core.

Hypothesis
Adaptive dosing at least doubles time to progression compared with continuous maximum tolerated dosing in at least one of three cancer settings while reducing cumulative drug exposure by 40 percent or more.
Rationale
Evolutionary theory and the prostate pilot agree that maintaining a sensitive population imposes a fitness cost on resistant cells; the failure of continuous dosing to prevent resistance is universal.
What would test it
Randomised phase 2 platform with 100 patients per disease cohort, primary endpoint time to progression, secondary cumulative dose and quality of life; pre-specified mathematical model calibration per patient.
Maturity
early clinical
Who has to act
research
Cost to try
Medium ($1M to $50M)
Years to first evidence
5
Bottlenecks it attacks

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