OnCo
ideasIdea

Advance market commitments for paediatric and rare cancer drugs

Payers would promise in advance to buy a set number of doses at a set price for any drug that meets a defined bar in a rare or childhood cancer, so companies know the market exists before they invest.

Modelled on Gavi's pneumococcal advance market commitment, a consortium of national payers and foundations pledges a guaranteed purchase (volume times price, for example $300 million over ten years) for the first therapy meeting a target product profile in a specified rare or paediatric indication: diffuse midline glioma, relapsed neuroblastoma, Ewing sarcoma, rare fusion-driven cancers. In exchange, the developer accepts a long-run affordable price and supply commitments. The commitment is only paid on delivery of a product that meets pre-registered efficacy criteria, so payers bear no risk of failure.

Hypothesis
An AMC of a few hundred million dollars for a named paediatric indication brings at least two registration-intent programmes into that indication within five years where there were none, and shortens time from adult approval to paediatric labelling for eligible mechanisms.
Rationale
The pneumococcal AMC accelerated vaccine availability in poor countries by years and drew in new manufacturers. Paediatric oncology drug development is delayed by uncertain and small markets; the RACE Act mandates studies but does not make them profitable. A guaranteed market is the missing pull.
What would test it
Design one AMC with a target product profile and escrowed funds for a single indication, publish it, and count programme entries and phase 1/2 starts in that indication over five years against comparable indications.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
payer
Cost to try
Large (over $50M)
Years to first evidence
6
Bottlenecks it attacks

Connected

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