OnCo
ideasIdea

A clone report from blood at every treatment cycle

Blood tests can already detect tumour DNA. Reporting which sub-populations of the tumour are growing or shrinking, cycle by cycle, would turn the test into an evolution monitor.

Phylogenetic ctDNA analysis, as developed in TRACERx, assigns plasma variants to tumour subclones and tracks their relative abundance. The proposal is a standardised clinical report in which each ctDNA draw lists clone fractions, emergent clones, and clone-specific drug sensitivities, rather than a flat list of variants and allele frequencies.

Hypothesis
Clone-level ctDNA reporting detects the expansion of a resistant subclone a median of three or more months before radiographic progression and changes management in at least a fifth of patients on targeted therapy.
Rationale
Resistance is subclone expansion. Existing panels report VAFs without the phylogenetic context that distinguishes clonal shrinkage from branch escape. The maths exists; the reporting format does not.
What would test it
Retrospective analysis on serial plasma from a completed TKI trial to compute lead time; then a prospective single-arm study in EGFR or ALK lung cancer where clinicians receive clone reports and act on pre-specified rules.
Maturity
early clinical
Who has to act
data
Cost to try
Medium ($1M to $50M)
Years to first evidence
3
Bottlenecks it attacks

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