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An independent evaluation unit for surgical robots and AI, paid on evidence

Hospitals buy multi-million-dollar surgical robots and AI tools with little proof they help patients. An independent body would run the comparative trials, and payers would only pay premiums for what is shown to work.

A publicly-funded evaluation unit, analogous to a health technology assessment body but with the capacity to sponsor randomised and registry-based comparisons, for surgical robotics, intraoperative AI (anatomy recognition, margin prediction, skill assessment) and autonomous surgical functions in cancer surgery. Reimbursement premiums for these technologies would be conditional on participation in unit-led evaluations, with results published. Robotic surgery has diffused for two decades with few randomised trials, and surgical AI is following the same path; the drug world's requirement for evidence before payment is absent here.

Hypothesis
An evaluation unit with conditional-payment leverage generates randomised or high-quality comparative evidence for at least ten surgical robotic or AI applications within four years and leads to at least two adoption decisions being reversed or restricted on the basis of that evidence.
Rationale
Where randomised trials of robotic surgery have been done (ROLARR for rectal cancer, RAZOR for cystectomy) they showed no oncological advantage and much higher cost; those trials were run without any systematic mechanism. Coverage with evidence development has made trials happen for cardiac devices and proton therapy.
What would test it
Establish the unit, link premium reimbursement of two technologies to enrolment in its comparative studies, and measure evidence generated and adoption changes over four years.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
payer
Cost to try
Large (over $50M)
Years to first evidence
4
Bottlenecks it attacks

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