OnCo
ideasIdea

An open model of every cancer cell state, built from perturbation atlases

Map every state a cancer cell can be in, and how drugs and the surrounding tissue move it between states, into an open computational model anyone can query and improve.

Single-cell and spatial atlases (Human Tumor Atlas Network, Human Cell Atlas) describe cell states; perturbation screens and foundation models trained on them begin to predict responses. The proposal is a coordinated, openly licensed effort to generate perturbation-response single-cell data across hundreds of models and patient samples, train and release a foundation model of cancer cell state transitions, and benchmark it prospectively against drug response in organoids and trials, with the data, weights and benchmarks all public.

Hypothesis
An open cell-state model predicts drug response and resistance transitions in held-out patient samples better than existing biomarkers and shortens target and combination discovery cycles measurably.
Rationale
Heterogeneity and plasticity defeat single-marker approaches; only a model of states and transitions captures them. Open weights and benchmarks avoid the reproducibility failures of closed models.
What would test it
Release version one with prospective benchmark on organoid response; then a biomarker-defined trial in which model-predicted responders are enriched and outcomes compared with standard selection.
Maturity
preclinical evidence
Who has to act
research
Cost to try
Large (over $50M)
Years to first evidence
6
Bottlenecks it attacks

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