OnCo
termsTerm

External and synthetic control arms

aka external control, external control arm, external comparator, synthetic control, synthetic control arm, historical control, historical controls, historical comparison, real-world comparator, real-world control, natural history control, matched cohort, propensity-matched, propensity score, Bayesian borrowing, dynamic borrowing, hybrid control

Instead of randomising patients to a control group, comparing a single-arm trial against patients treated in the past or in registries. It can support approval in very rare diseases, but differences between the groups can masquerade as drug effects.

External controls draw on prior trials, electronic health records or registries (Flatiron, TriNetX) and use propensity matching or Bayesian dynamic borrowing to align populations; regulators have accepted them for eflornithine in neuroblastoma, several paediatric and rare-cancer approvals, and in the EU for some CAR-T comparisons. Weaknesses are unmeasured confounding, different eras of supportive care ('bias when standard of care changes between eras'), and differences in outcome assessment. FDA guidance (2023) sets expectations for data quality; they are best used to contextualise single-arm results and to design, not replace, randomised confirmatory trials.

Category
Trials & regulation

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