Open-source models that translate stage shift into lives saved, for every cancer
Whether finding cancer earlier saves lives depends on the cancer. Public models, one per cancer, would let trials and payers predict the mortality benefit from a stage shift honestly.
CISNET models exist for a few cancers and are not fully open. Propose an open, peer-reviewed microsimulation library covering the 20 commonest cancers, calibrated to registry survival by stage and to the sojourn-time literature, with pre-registration of predicted mortality effects for each MCED trial before readout.
- Most lethal cancers are found late · Screening exists for only a few cancers. Pancreatic, ovarian, liver, oesophageal and most lung cancers are found when cure is unlikely.
- Trial design, endpoints and cost · A phase 3 trial takes years and hundreds of millions of dollars, and often answers a question that has already moved on.
Pages like this
not linked directly; found by shared links- IdeaLet MCED trials read out on late-stage incidence, with mortality follow-up mandated
Shares NHS-Galleri, Stage shift, Most lethal cancers are found late, Trial design, endpoints and cost.
- Key paperNHS-Galleri: design of the largest randomised trial of a multi-cancer blood test
Shares NHS-Galleri, Stage shift, Most lethal cancers are found late, Trial design, endpoints and cost.
- IdeaA live national dashboard of stage at diagnosis as the scorecard for early detection
- IdeaRegistry-based randomised MCED trial: a million people, no study visits
- IdeaA whole-population cancer interception programme: risk-stratify every adult, detect and intercept early
Shares NHS-Galleri, Stage shift, Most lethal cancers are found late.
- PersonKatie Couric
- IdeaPre-agreed update rules so an MCED test is not obsolete when its trial reads out
- IdeaNon-endoscopic screening for Barrett's oesophagus and early adenocarcinoma