OnCo
ideasIdea

Simulate eligibility against real-world data before every protocol is locked

Before a trial is finalised, run its entry rules against records of real patients with that cancer and report what fraction would qualify. If it is under half, explain why.

An 'eligibility impact statement' in the protocol: the criteria are applied to a de-identified real-world cohort (EHR-derived or registry) and the eligible fraction, its demographic profile and the criteria excluding the most patients are reported. Work using real-world oncology data has shown that relaxing common criteria roughly doubles the eligible population with little change in estimated treatment effect.

Hypothesis
Protocols with a pre-lock eligibility impact statement will end up with a higher real-world eligible fraction and faster accrual than protocols without one, because the statement makes the cost of each criterion visible to the team writing it.
Rationale
Teams over-restrict because restriction feels safe and its cost is invisible. A number on the page changes the conversation; this is how carbon and cost-impact statements work in other fields.
What would test it
A sponsor introduces the statement for half of its new protocols by random allocation of programmes and compares eligible fraction and accrual speed after 18 months.
Maturity
early clinical
Who has to act
industry
Cost to try
Small (under $1M)
Years to first evidence
1
Bottlenecks it attacks

Connected

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