OnCo
ideasIdea

Evaluate clean-air policies using lung cancer in never-smokers

Air pollution causes lung cancer in people who never smoked. Clean air zones and coal phase-outs should be tracked against never-smoker lung cancer rates.

Fine particulate pollution promotes EGFR-mutant lung cancer in never-smokers (Francis Crick Institute work). Propose linked-data evaluation of air-quality interventions (London ULEZ, Chinese coal-to-gas conversion) with never-smoker, EGFR-mutant lung cancer incidence as endpoints, and pre-registered modelling.

Hypothesis
A sustained 10 micrograms per cubic metre PM2.5 reduction reduces never-smoker lung cancer incidence by at least 10% within 15 years.
Rationale
Mechanistic and epidemiological evidence exists, and the policies are being enacted anyway, so evaluation is cheap.
What would test it
Registry-linked natural experiments with molecular subtyping.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
data
Cost to try
Small (under $1M)
Years to first evidence
10
Bottlenecks it attacks

Key papers

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Connected

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