OnCo
frontsFront

Prevention & Risk

Stopping cancer from starting: vaccines, germline testing, lifestyle, and preventive drugs or surgery.

HPV and HBV vaccination, hereditary cancer syndrome testing (BRCA, Lynch), chemoprevention (tamoxifen, aspirin in Lynch), risk-reducing surgery, and population-level tobacco and alcohol control. The most cost-effective section of oncology and the least glamorous.

Prevention & Risk: how this front works · animated schematic, not to scale

Technologies

23top
Established
Alcohol reduction, pricing and cancer warning labels

Alcohol causes at least seven cancers and there is no safe threshold. Price, availability and cancer warning labels are the tools that work; most people still do not know alcohol causes cancer.

Phase 3
Aspirin for cancer prevention and adjuvant therapy

Daily low-dose aspirin lowers bowel cancer risk in people with Lynch syndrome and appears to cut recurrence in bowel cancers with a particular mutation. In healthy older people it caused more harm than good.

Established
Bariatric surgery and cancer incidence

People with severe obesity who have weight-loss surgery develop about a third fewer cancers over the following decade, especially womb and other hormone-related cancers, than similar people who do not.

Phase 2
Cancer interception vaccines

Vaccinating people who do not have cancer yet but are very likely to get it, against the antigens their future tumour will carry.

Standard of care
Cancer registries and population surveillance

The public systems that count every cancer diagnosis and death in a country, which tell us whether incidence and survival are improving.

Standard of care
Chemoprevention & risk-reducing surgery

Drugs or surgery for people at high inherited risk, before any cancer appears.

Established
Coffee and tea intake

Coffee does not cause cancer and is probably protective against liver and womb cancer. Very hot drinks of any kind may raise oesophageal cancer risk.

Established
Exercise & lifestyle oncology

Structured exercise during and after treatment, which the CHALLENGE trial showed improves survival in colon cancer.

Standard of care
Germline (hereditary) testing

A test of the DNA you were born with, to find inherited risk genes such as BRCA or Lynch syndrome.

Emerging
Global oncology and access in low- and middle-income countries

Seventy percent of cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, where radiotherapy machines, pathologists, essential medicines and palliative care are scarce. Global oncology works on affordable, adapted care and the systems to deliver it.

Emerging
GLP-1 receptor agonists and obesity-related cancer risk

GLP-1 agonists, the new weight-loss injections, lower weight by 15-20%. Early observational data suggest fewer obesity-related cancers in people who take them, but no trial has yet tested cancer as an outcome.

Standard of care
HPV & HBV vaccination

Vaccines that prevent the viral infections behind cervical, throat, anal, and liver cancers. The most effective anti-cancer intervention ever created.

Established
Mediterranean and plant-forward dietary patterns

Diets built around vegetables, wholegrains, legumes, nuts, fish and olive oil, with little red or processed meat, are linked with lower cancer risk and better survival after diagnosis. The evidence is strong for the pattern, weak for any single food.

Established
Red and processed meat reduction

Processed meat (bacon, ham, sausages) definitely causes bowel cancer; red meat probably does. The risk per person is modest, but because so many people eat it, the population impact is large.

Established
Risk-reducing and opportunistic salpingectomy

Removing the fallopian tubes, where most ovarian cancer starts, during other pelvic surgery or in women at inherited risk.

Established
Smoking cessation in cancer patients

Stopping smoking after a cancer diagnosis improves survival, reduces treatment complications and second cancers, and is the single most effective supportive intervention that oncology services still routinely fail to deliver.

Established
Soy foods and breast cancer

For years women with breast cancer were told to avoid soy because it contains plant oestrogens. Large studies show moderate soy food intake is safe and may slightly reduce recurrence, including on tamoxifen.

Phase 3
Systematic drug repurposing

Testing cheap old drugs, aspirin, metformin, statins, beta-blockers, as cancer treatments, because they are safe, available and sometimes work.

Standard of care
Thermal ablation and cryotherapy for cervical precancer

Destroying precancerous cervical cells with a heated or frozen probe in under a minute, the tool that makes screen-and-treat possible where there are no surgeons.

Phase 2
Time-restricted eating in cancer prevention and survivorship

Time-restricted eating means eating within a window of 8-12 hours a day and fasting overnight. It improves blood sugar and weight a little; whether it changes cancer risk or recurrence is unknown.

Phase 2
Trained innate immunity

Giving the innate immune system a memory, so monocytes and NK cells respond harder the next time they meet a tumour.

Emerging
Ultra-processed food and sugar-sweetened drinks

Diets high in industrially processed foods and sugary drinks are linked with more cancer, mainly through obesity but perhaps also through additives and packaging chemicals. Sugar itself does not 'feed' a tumour in the way social media claims.

Phase 3
Vitamin D and omega-3 supplementation

The largest trial of vitamin D and fish-oil pills found they did not prevent cancer. A possible reduction in cancer deaths, and hints of benefit after a digestive cancer diagnosis, keep the question alive.

Key papers

15top
observationalLancet Oncology 2021
Alcohol caused an estimated 741,000 cancers worldwide in 2020

There is no safe level of alcohol for cancer risk, and the risk is highest for cancers of the mouth, throat, oesophagus, liver, bowel and breast. Public awareness is low; most people do not know alcohol causes breast cancer. Warning labels and minimum pricing are the policy levers being debated.

observationalThe Lancet 2021changed practice
England's HPV programme: cervical cancer down 87% in the first cohort vaccinated at 12-13

School-based vaccination at 12-13 with high uptake nearly abolishes cervical cancer in vaccinated cohorts, even with a vaccine covering only two HPV types. Screening intervals and the future of cervical screening can now be redesigned around vaccination status.

rctThe Lancet 2020changed practice
CAPP2: two years of aspirin cuts bowel cancer in Lynch syndrome by more than a third over 10 years

People with Lynch syndrome should be offered daily aspirin, which roughly halves bowel cancer risk with a delayed and durable effect. Whether a lower dose (as tested in CAPP3) is as effective, and whether the finding extends to the general population, are separate questions.

translationalClinical Cancer Research 2020
First trial of a vaccine against the shared neoantigens of mismatch-repair-deficient cancers

Because Lynch syndrome tumours make the same abnormal proteins in almost every patient, a single vaccine could in principle be given to carriers before cancer develops. This small trial showed the concept is safe and immunogenic; whether it prevents cancer requires the randomised trials now being planned.

observationalNew England Journal of Medicine 2020changed practice
Swedish registry study: HPV vaccination almost eliminates cervical cancer when given before 17

Vaccinating girls before they are exposed to HPV prevents most cervical cancers. Catch-up vaccination in young adults still helps, but less. Combined with HPV screening, elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem is a realistic goal.

meta analysisBMJ 2018changed practice
Self-collected HPV samples are as accurate as clinician samples and reach women who never attend screening

Women can collect their own screening sample at home with no loss of accuracy if the laboratory uses a PCR test. Sending kits directly is the most effective way to reach women who do not attend, which matters because most cervical cancers occur in under-screened women.

reviewNew England Journal of Medicine 2016changed practice
IARC verdict: excess body fat causes 13 cancers

Maintaining a healthy weight is now established cancer prevention for over a dozen cancer types. For clinicians and policymakers, obesity belongs alongside tobacco and alcohol in prevention strategy. Whether intentional weight loss in adulthood reverses risk is still being studied, including in trials of GLP-1 drugs.

rctLancet Oncology 2015changed practice
IBIS-I: five years of tamoxifen keeps preventing breast cancer for at least 20 years

For women at raised risk, a 5-year course of tamoxifen offers long-lasting protection against the commonest kind of breast cancer. Uptake is low because of side effects and fear of rare serious harms; low-dose tamoxifen (TAM-01) is now being tested to improve the balance. It has not been shown to save lives.

basicScience 2015
Martincorena: normal sun-exposed skin is a patchwork of cancer-mutation clones

Carrying a cancer mutation is normal; most mutant clones never become cancer. This means blood or tissue tests that look for driver mutations alone will produce false positives, and that the question of what tips a mutant clone into cancer (tissue environment, further hits, immune surveillance) is as important as the mutation itself.

rctJAMA Internal Medicine 2015
PREDIMED: a Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil and fewer breast cancers

A Mediterranean dietary pattern rich in olive oil may lower breast cancer risk, and it is safe and good for the heart anyway. The evidence is suggestive, not definitive, because of the small number of cancers; it should not be presented as proven cancer prevention.

observationalNew England Journal of Medicine 2014
Jaiswal: clonal haematopoiesis, the pre-leukaemic clones in most people over 70

Many older people carry blood clones one or two steps from leukaemia, and those clones also drive heart disease through inflammation. CHIP is why blood-based cancer tests must filter out mutations from blood cells, and it opens a route to preventing both leukaemia and cardiovascular events in carriers.

rctNew England Journal of Medicine 2011changed practice
NLST: yearly low-dose CT scans cut lung cancer deaths in heavy smokers

For people with a heavy smoking history, an annual low-dose CT scan is one of the few screening tests proven to reduce cancer deaths. Most abnormal scans are not cancer, so screening must be paired with careful nodule management. It does not apply to never-smokers or light smokers.

observationalJAMA 2010changed practice
PROSE consortium: preventive surgery lowers cancer and death in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers

For women who carry a BRCA mutation, preventive removal of the ovaries and tubes saves lives, and preventive mastectomy almost eliminates breast cancer. These are the strongest prevention effects in oncology, which is why finding carriers before they develop cancer matters so much.

observationalBMJ 2004changed practice
Fifty years of the British Doctors Study: smokers lose ten years of life, quitting gives most of it back

Smoking is the single largest preventable cause of cancer death, and quitting at any age helps, with the greatest gain from quitting young. Cessation support belongs in every cancer service, including lung screening programmes.

observationalBMJ 1950changed practice
Doll and Hill 1950: the case-control study that tied smoking to lung cancer

Doll and Hill's 1950 study is where the evidence that smoking causes cancer begins. Everything from cigarette warnings and tax to smoke-free laws and lung screening eligibility descends from this study and the cohort that followed it.

Connected

161top

technologies

23

companies

1

institutions

60
Aichi Cancer CenterAll India Institute of Medical Sciences, New DelhiCanadian Cancer SocietyCancer Council AustraliaCancer Institute (WIA), AdyarCancer Institute of Iran, Imam Khomeini Hospital ComplexCancer Prevention and Research Institute of TexasCharlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital / University of the WitwatersrandDeutsche KrebshilfeDharmais National Cancer CenterEuropean Cancer OrganisationFondation ARC pour la recherche sur le cancerFox Chase Cancer CenterGates FoundationGroote Schuur Hospital / University of Cape TownHacettepe University Cancer InstituteHamad Medical Corporation / National Center for Cancer Care and ResearchHospital de Amor (Barretos Cancer Hospital)Hospital de Clínicas de Porto AlegreInstitut National d'Oncologie, RabatInstitut National du CancerInstitut PasteurInstitut Salah AzaïezInstitute of Oncology LjubljanaInstituto Nacional de Câncer (INCA)Instituto Nacional de Cancerología (Colombia)Instituto Nacional de Cancerología (Mexico)Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades NeoplásicasIrish Cancer SocietyKaiser Permanente Division of ResearchKenyatta National HospitalKidwai Memorial Institute of OncologyKing Hussein Cancer CenterKorle Bu Teaching HospitalKWF Dutch Cancer SocietyLagos University Teaching HospitalLigue nationale contre le cancerMaria Skłodowska-Curie National Research Institute of OncologyMarkey Cancer Center, University of KentuckyMasaryk Memorial Cancer InstituteMasonic Cancer Center, University of MinnesotaMUSC Hollings Cancer CenterNational Cancer Center KoreaNational Taiwan University HospitalNSABP FoundationOcean Road Cancer InstitutePhilippine General HospitalQIMR Berghofer Medical Research InstituteShaare Zedek Medical CenterTohoku University HospitalTongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyUganda Cancer InstituteUnion for International Cancer ControlUniversity of Arizona Cancer CenterUniversity of Hawai'i Cancer CenterUniversity of Malaya Medical CentreUniversity of New Mexico Comprehensive Cancer CenterVCU Massey Comprehensive Cancer CenterVietnam National Cancer Hospital (K Hospital)World Health Organization – Cancer Programme

trials

4

roadmaps

1

ideas

50
A bone drug to prevent breast cancer in BRCA1 carriersA chatbot for pre-test genetic counselling so counsellors see only who needs themA randomised trial of a shared-antigen vaccine to prevent Lynch syndrome cancersA single 'cancer check at 60' appointment bundling all screening testsA therapeutic vaccine to clear cervical precancer without surgeryA trial of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs with cancer as the primary outcomeA vaccine against H. pylori for children in high-risk regionsAn Epstein-Barr virus vaccine to prevent nasopharyngeal cancer and lymphomasAntibiotic-resistance testing from a stool sample before treating H. pyloriAutomatic germline testing for every cancer type where it changes careBan commercial sunbedsBan life and disability insurers from using genetic resultsBuild polygenic scores that work in every ancestry before deploying anyCancer warnings on alcohol labels, evaluated as a natural experimentCatch-up HPV vaccination for men to prevent throat cancerCommunity pharmacies as one-stop cancer prevention hubsControlled feeding trials to separate ultra-processing from caloriesCure hepatitis C in prisons and drug services, and enrol the cured in liver cancer surveillanceEvaluate alcohol minimum unit pricing against cancer incidenceEvaluate clean-air policies using lung cancer in never-smokersEvery lung screening visit includes stop-smoking medicine, opt-outFamily history collected by app and matched to testing criteria automaticallyFamily-based H. pylori test-and-treat to prevent stomach cancerGet every Lynch syndrome carrier onto the right dose of aspirinGLP-1 drugs to reverse endometrial precancer in women with obesityGo back to families of women who died of ovarian cancer and offer BRCA testingHPV self-testing with same-day treatment as the national cervical programmeLet clinics contact relatives directly when a cancer gene is foundLink bariatric and GLP-1 registries to cancer registries in every country that has bothLow-dose tamoxifen for high-risk women, prescribed by pharmacists and nursesMake cigarettes non-addictive by capping their nicotineMandatory radon testing when homes are sold, with subsidised mitigationMinimum alcohol pricing evaluated with cancer endpointsOffer everyone at 30 a test for the cancer genes that matterOffer HPV vaccination to women when they come for cervical screening or treatmentOne master trial for cancer prevention drugs across many precancersPay insurers and health systems for cancers prevented and caught earlyPost every woman an HPV self-test kit instead of asking her to book a smearPut cytisine, a cheap plant-based quit-smoking pill, on every essential medicines listRegulators accept shrinking of precancer as the endpoint for prevention drug approvalRemove the fallopian tubes during any pelvic surgery once childbearing is finishedSame-day HPV test and heat treatment of precancer by nurses in low-income settingsSend screening invitations with a pre-booked time, not a request to callSmoke-free generation laws with a built-in evaluation across countriesStore adult-onset cancer gene results from newborn genomes and disclose at 18Switch every country to single-dose HPV vaccination and add catch-up to age 26Test every possible mutation in every cancer gene so no result is 'uncertain'Treat everyone with chronic hepatitis B to prevent liver cancerUse a polygenic risk score to set when screening startsWhole-body MRI plus blood DNA surveillance for people with Li-Fraumeni syndrome

people

5

bottlenecks

2

key papers

15