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Catch-up HPV vaccination for men to prevent throat cancer

HPV throat cancer now exceeds cervical cancer in some countries and mostly affects men, who were not vaccinated. Vaccinating men up to 45 could reduce it.

HPV vaccination reduces oral HPV16 prevalence, and oropharyngeal cancer incidence in men is rising. Propose catch-up vaccination for men to age 45, with oral HPV prevalence as an intermediate endpoint and modelled cancer reduction.

Hypothesis
Catch-up vaccination of men aged 27-45 reduces oral HPV16 prevalence by at least half in the vaccinated and oropharyngeal cancer incidence by at least 20% within 20 years.
Rationale
Long latency but a strong causal chain, and the vaccine is safe in adults.
What would test it
Prevalence surveys, modelling, and cost-effectiveness analysis.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
policy
Cost to try
Medium ($1M to $50M)
Years to first evidence
10
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