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ideasIdea

Switch every country to single-dose HPV vaccination and add catch-up to age 26

One dose of HPV vaccine protects as well as two or three. Halving the doses frees supply to vaccinate far more girls, boys and young adults.

KEN SHE and other trials show single-dose efficacy and WHO recommends one- or two-dose schedules, yet many countries retain two doses. Propose a coordinated switch with freed supply directed to gender-neutral and catch-up vaccination to age 26, measured by coverage and HPV16/18 prevalence.

Hypothesis
A single-dose switch increases full coverage in Gavi-supported countries by at least 20 percentage points within three years and reduces HPV16/18 prevalence in 18-year-olds by at least half within a decade.
Rationale
Supply and delivery cost, not hesitancy, are the main limits in low-income countries; single dose halves both.
What would test it
Country-level coverage and prevalence monitoring as the switch is implemented.
Maturity
being tested at scale
Who has to act
policy
Cost to try
Large (over $50M)
Years to first evidence
5
Bottlenecks it attacks

Key papers

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