OnCo
ideasIdea

Lung screening eligibility by risk score, not pack-years, including high-risk never-smokers

Pack-year rules miss many people who get lung cancer, including East Asian women who never smoked. A risk score with family history and ancestry would find more cancers per scan.

PLCOm2012 risk-based selection is more efficient than USPSTF criteria; Taiwan's TALENT study found high detection in never-smoking women with family history. Propose eligibility by a validated risk model with a threshold (e.g. 1.5% six-year risk) plus a never-smoker arm for populations with high never-smoker incidence.

Hypothesis
Risk-model eligibility increases cancers detected per 1,000 scans by at least 30%, and never-smoker criteria in East Asian populations achieve detection rates comparable to smoker screening.
Rationale
Screening efficiency scales with baseline risk; never-smoker EGFR-mutant lung cancer in East Asian women is a distinct epidemic not captured by tobacco criteria.
What would test it
Pragmatic comparison within a national programme (England's Targeted Lung Health Check) and a never-smoker RCT in Taiwan, China, or Korea with mortality follow-up.
Maturity
being tested at scale
Who has to act
policy
Cost to try
Medium ($1M to $50M)
Years to first evidence
5
Bottlenecks it attacks

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