OnCo
roadmapsRoadmap

AI in oncology roadmap: pattern readers → foundation models → agents in the workflow

Artificial intelligence in cancer started as software that flagged spots on a mammogram. It now designs molecules, reads slides better than any single pathologist for some tasks, and is beginning to match patients to trials and draft the tumour board summary; the question is which of it will be proven to help.

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1998-2016historicstep 1 of 8

Computer-aided detection

The first cleared cancer AI was computer-aided detection for mammography in 1998, which marked suspicious regions for the radiologist and, in large observational studies, did not improve accuracy. Rule-based decision support for treatment recommendations was tried and mostly abandoned. The lesson that survived: an algorithm has to be evaluated on the decision it changes, not on the pattern it finds.

2017-2022historicstep 2 of 8

Deep learning reaches cleared devices

Convolutional networks trained on labelled images matched specialists on narrow tasks. Paige Prostate (2021) became the first FDA-authorised AI for reading pathology slides; radiology triage tools for haemorrhage and embolism were cleared by the dozen; Sybil and Mirai predicted future lung and breast cancer from today's scan. Whole-slide scanning became routine in large centres, which made slide-level AI possible at all.

2020-2026currentstep 3 of 8

Structure prediction and generative design

AlphaFold made protein structure a lookup rather than a two-year experiment; AlphaFold 3 (2024), Boltz and Chai extended it to drug-protein and antibody complexes, and RFdiffusion and ESM3 design proteins that never existed. Insilico's generative chemistry produced the first AI-discovered drug to reach phase 2, Isomorphic's first oncology candidate was cleared for trials, and Recursion and Xaira are betting that image and perturbation data can find targets no hypothesis would. None has yet produced an approved cancer drug, which is the honest benchmark.

technologyEstablished
AlphaFold 3

Predicts the 3D shape of proteins together with DNA, RNA, small molecules and antibodies, the starting point for much modern drug design.

technologyEmerging
Boltz-1 / Boltz-2 (MIT, open)

Open-source structure models that match AlphaFold 3, with Boltz-2 also predicting how strongly a drug binds.

technologyEmerging
Chai-1 / Chai-2

Structure and antibody-design models from Chai Discovery, with Chai-2 reporting high zero-shot antibody hit rates.

technologyEmerging
RFdiffusion / RFdiffusion2 and ProteinMPNN (Baker Lab)

The tools that design entirely new proteins to bind a chosen target, now used for cancer binders and antibodies.

technologyEmerging
ESM3 (EvolutionaryScale)

ESM3 is a generative protein model that designed a working fluorescent protein far from any natural sequence.

technologyPhase 2
AI-driven drug & target discovery

Using machine learning to pick targets, design molecules and antibodies, and predict which ADC will work.

technologyEmerging
Chemistry42 and Pharma.AI (Insilico)

Generative chemistry platform behind the first AI-discovered drug to reach phase 2, plus oncology candidates.

company
Insilico Medicine

Generative-AI drug discovery company, listed in Hong Kong in December 2025, with a pan-KRAS candidate and a pan-TEAD inhibitor in the clinic.

company
Isomorphic Labs

Alphabet's AlphaFold-derived drug design company; its first AI-designed oncology candidate was cleared for human trials in January 2026 after a $2.1B raise.

company
Recursion Pharmaceuticals

Recursion is an AI-first biotech (merged with Exscientia in 2024) with a clinical oncology pipeline that includes an RBM39 degrader and a MEK inhibitor for familial adenomatous polyposis.

technologyEmerging
Phenom-2 and Recursion OS

A model trained on billions of cell microscopy images to read what a drug or gene knockout does to a cell.

company
Xaira Therapeutics

Launched in 2024 with over $1 billion to build AI-native drug discovery from Baker-lab protein design.

company
Google DeepMind (and Google Research)

Google DeepMind built AlphaFold, AlphaMissense, AlphaGenome and Med-Gemini, the reference models for structure, variants, and medical multimodal reasoning.

2023-2026currentstep 4 of 8

Foundation models and the first predictive tests

Pathology models pretrained on millions of slides (Virchow, Prov-GigaPath, UNI and CONCH, H-optimus, TITAN) predict mutations, biomarkers and outcomes from a routine stain; MUSK adds clinical text. ArteraAI Prostate (2025) was the first AI test cleared to predict benefit from a treatment, and ArteraAI Breast followed in 2026. MASAI gave the first randomised evidence that AI-supported screening finds more cancers with less workload; Aidoc CARE (January 2026) was the first foundation-model triage platform cleared. Single-cell models (Geneformer, scGPT, State) and the Tahoe-100M dataset began the same arc for biology.

technologyEmerging
Pathology & radiology foundation models

Very large AI models trained on millions of slides or scans that can be adapted to almost any diagnostic question.

technologyEmerging
Virchow / Virchow2 (Paige, MSK)

A pathology foundation model trained on millions of slides that can detect cancer and predict biomarkers from an ordinary H&E slide.

technologyEmerging
Prov-GigaPath (Microsoft, Providence)

An open pathology model trained on 1.3 billion image tiles from a US health system, modelling whole slides at gigapixel scale.

technologyEmerging
UNI and CONCH (Harvard, Mahmood Lab)

Two open academic pathology models: UNI reads tissue images, CONCH links images with pathology text.

technologyEmerging
H-optimus (Bioptimus)

An open 1.1-billion-parameter pathology model from a French startup, among the strongest on public benchmarks.

technologyEmerging
TITAN (whole-slide multimodal model)

TITAN is a model that summarises a whole slide, not just tiles, and can write a draft pathology report.

technologyEmerging
MUSK (Stanford, vision-language pathology)

A model that reads slides and clinical text together to predict who will respond to immunotherapy.

technologyEmerging
CHIEF (Harvard, Yu Lab)

A pathology model trained across 19 cancer types that predicts survival and mutations from slides.

drugApproved
ArteraAI Prostate

The first AI tool cleared by the FDA to predict both prognosis and treatment benefit from a routine biopsy slide, in prostate cancer.

drugApproved
ArteraAI Breast

An FDA-cleared AI test (May 2026) that reads breast cancer slides to estimate recurrence risk in early hormone-positive disease.

company
Artera

First company with FDA-cleared AI pathology tests that predict treatment benefit (prostate 2025, breast 2026).

trialPositive
MASAI (Mammography Screening with Artificial Intelligence)

The first randomised trial of AI in breast screening found more cancers and cut radiologists' reading work almost in half without more false alarms.

technologyEmerging
Aidoc CARE (clinical radiology foundation model)

Aidoc CARE is a single foundation model behind many FDA-cleared triage alerts in emergency radiology.

technologyEmerging
CT-FM (whole-body CT foundation model)

A model pretrained on 148,000 CT scans to segment organs and triage findings.

technologyEmerging
Merlin (Stanford abdominal CT vision-language model)

Merlin is a model trained on 15,000 CT scans with their reports that can find and describe hundreds of findings.

technologyEmerging
Geneformer

The first widely used transformer trained on millions of single cells, able to predict which genes matter in a disease.

technologyEmerging
scGPT

A GPT-style model for single-cell data that predicts cell types, perturbation responses, and gene networks.

technologyEmerging
State (Arc Institute perturbation model)

Predicts how cells will respond to a drug or gene knockout, trained on over 100 million perturbed cells.

collection
Tahoe-100M

Tahoe-100M is the biggest single-cell dataset ever released, built to teach AI how cancer cells respond to drugs.

collection
Pathology AI benchmarks (CAMELYON, PANDA, TCGA slide tasks)

The exam papers every pathology model is graded on.

2025-2028emergingstep 5 of 8

Language models enter the workflow

The first widely deployed AI in cancer care is not a diagnosis but a time-saver: auto-contouring of organs and tumours for radiotherapy planning now runs in hundreds of centres. Language models are being tested to match patients to trials from the record at the moment a treatment is chosen, to draft tumour-board summaries and pathology reports, and to answer patient questions under supervision. Federated learning lets models train across hospitals without moving data. The evidence standard for each is still being written.

technologyEstablished
AI auto-contouring and adaptive planning

Software that draws organs and tumours on scans automatically, saving hours per patient and making daily plan adaptation practical.

company
Limbus AI

Limbus AI provides AI auto-contouring for radiotherapy, FDA-cleared and used across hundreds of centres.

company
TheraPanacea

TheraPanacea is a Paris AI company whose ART-Plan does auto-contouring and synthetic CT in radiotherapy.

technologyEstablished
AI trial matching & clinical decision support

Software, increasingly LLM-based, that reads a patient's record and finds trials or guideline options they qualify for.

company
Trial Library

Trial Library is software that helps everyday cancer clinics spot which patients might qualify for a clinical trial, refer them, and remove practical barriers like transport so more people, especially in under served communities, can join trials.

company
Massive Bio

Massive Bio uses artificial intelligence to read a cancer patient's medical records and match them to clinical trials they may be eligible for, anywhere in the world, with doctors checking the results.

technologyEmerging
Med-Gemini and MedLM (Google)

Google's medical versions of its Gemini models, able to reason over text, images, and long records.

technologyEmerging
Foresight (generative EHR model)

A model trained on millions of hospital records that forecasts a patient's next diagnoses.

technologyEmerging
Federated learning and privacy-preserving AI

Training AI models across many hospitals without moving patient data, so the model learns from everyone while the data stay put.

company
Owkin

French AI biotech using federated learning across hospitals; first CE-marked AI for MSI prediction from H&E.

company
Tempus AI

Genomic testing plus one of the largest multimodal clinical datasets, used for AI models and trial matching.

technologyStandard of care
Multidisciplinary tumour boards

Regular meetings where surgeons, oncologists, radiologists, pathologists and others review each patient's case together and agree a plan; mandatory in many countries and associated with more guideline-concordant care.

idea
Trial matching inside the electronic record at the moment a treatment is chosen

When an oncologist opens the order screen to prescribe a new line of treatment, the record would show the trials this patient may fit, with the nearest open site and a one-click referral.

2027-2032emergingstep 6 of 8

From prediction to prospective proof

The field has thousands of retrospective models and a handful of prospective trials. The infrastructure being proposed: a registry of external validation datasets with mandatory reporting, AI-first reading for high-volume common diagnoses with pathologists handling exceptions, every routine CT checked opportunistically for early cancer signs with a tracked pathway, AI central reads to cut trial endpoint cost, and digital twins as virtual control arms where a randomised control is unethical. Regulators are building predetermined change control plans so that models can update without re-clearance.

idea
A registry of external validation datasets for cancer AI models, with mandatory reporting

Cancer AI models are usually tested on data from the same hospital they were built on. A registry of independent test datasets, and a rule that every model reports performance on at least one, would show which models really work.

idea
AI-first reading for high-volume common cancer diagnoses, pathologist for the exceptions

Let validated AI make the first read on routine, high-volume samples like cervical smears and standard breast biopsy stains, so scarce pathologists spend their time on the difficult cases.

idea
Every routine CT scan checked by AI for early cancer signs, with a tracked follow-up pathway

Hundreds of millions of CT scans are done each year for other reasons. Software could check each one for early lung, kidney, liver and pancreas changes, but only if a follow-up system exists.

idea
AI-assisted central imaging reads to cut endpoint cost and variability

Measuring tumours on scans for trials is slow, expensive and inconsistent between readers. Software that measures lesions and flags changes, checked by a radiologist, could make trial endpoints cheaper and more reliable.

technologyEmerging
Digital twins and virtual control arms

Using a model of what would have happened to a patient on standard treatment, so fewer people have to be randomised to it.

collection
NCI Imaging Data Commons (IDC)

The Imaging Data Commons is TCIA in the cloud, ready for large-scale model training.

collection
Flatiron Health–Foundation Medicine Clinico-Genomic Database

Real-world evidence at scale: what happened to patients with a given genomic profile on a given treatment.

bottleneck
AI that is built but not validated or deployed

Thousands of cancer AI models are published; a handful are in clinical use, and fewer have shown they help patients.

2030+speculativestep 7 of 8

Patient-level models and the virtual cell

The two long-range bets are a multimodal model that reads slides, scans, genomics and the record to recommend and monitor treatment, and a virtual cell accurate enough to run a drug experiment in silico before it is run in a dish. Both depend on data at a scale no single institution holds, on validation standards that do not yet exist, and on liability and consent questions that are open today. The companion roadmaps on the AI clinic and the virtual cell follow each in detail.

idea
Patient-level multimodal foundation models for treatment selection

Train one AI on scans, slides, genomics, and outcomes from many patients so it can predict, for a new patient, which treatment will work.

technologyEmerging
Tempus multimodal models

Models trained on Tempus's paired genomic, pathology, imaging and outcome data to predict response and prognosis.

company
Pathos AI

Pathos AI uses very large artificial intelligence models trained on millions of cancer patients' records, scans and genetic data to pick which experimental cancer drugs to develop and which patients to test them in, and is building its own pipeline of such drugs.

company
Noetik

Noetik builds artificial intelligence models of tumours from huge sets of tissue images and molecular data, to predict which patients will respond to a cancer drug and to find new targets.

collection
Arc Virtual Cell Atlas

Arc's growing library of cell data, the fuel for virtual cell models.

idea
In silico trials to choose the dose before the first patient

Simulating thousands of virtual patients on a computer can suggest which dose and schedule to test, so fewer real patients receive doses that are too high or too low.

roadmap
AI in the oncology clinic: from narrow cleared tools to multimodal decision support

How AI is moving from single-task readers of scans and slides towards systems that weigh everything about a patient, and what regulators and evidence still require.

roadmap
Virtual cell roadmap: from bulk omics to a predictive model of a cancer cell

The attempt to build a computer model of a cell good enough to predict what a drug or mutation will do before anyone runs the experiment.

What sets the pacecurrentstep 8 of 8

Validation, data and compute

The bottleneck is not model quality but the path from a published model to a deployed one: prospective evidence, external validation, regulatory status for updating models, payment, and data that can be shared. Records, scans and genomes sit in silos; real-world outcomes are weakly recorded, so there is little to learn from; and the workforce that would supervise AI is already short. Compute and model platforms are the one input that is not scarce.